GovSentry Research · June 2026
The Federal Recompete Cliff
We analyzed 40,188 federal contract awards to answer a question nobody else maps: what's coming up for recompete, and which of it can a normal business actually win? The short version — $732B across 8,603 contracts reach the end of their performance period in the next 12 months, and the wave is far from evenly spread.
$732B
up for recompete in 12 months
$314B
expiring in Q3 2026 alone
3,894
winnable (<$10M) recompetes
1. The recompete wave peaks at fiscal year-end
Federal contracts cluster their end dates on the September 30 fiscal year-end — so recompetes don't trickle out evenly, they arrive in waves. The biggest in the next two years lands in Q3 2026: $314B across 3,846 contracts hitting their performance deadline at once. Position before the solicitations drop, not after.
2. There are two federal contracting markets
The headline dollars hide the real story. 85% of contract value sits in mega-contracts ($100M+) — a world where the top 10 contractors hold 38% and almost nothing is set aside for small business. But there's a second market: 17,506 contracts under $10M where the top 10 hold just 4.6% — wide open, and where a small business actually competes.
| Tier | Awards | Value | Top-10 grip | Small-biz set-aside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega ($100M+) | 6,708 | $4.49T | 38% | 1.3% |
| Large ($10–100M) | 15,974 | $731B | 17% | 3.5% |
| Winnable (<$10M) | 17,506 | $45B | 4.6% | 1.9% |
Of the $732B up for recompete, $17.4B across 3,894 contracts falls in the winnable (<$10M) tier — the recompetes a small business can realistically chase.
3. Most active opportunities are long shots — here are the winnable niches
We scored 30,600 active federal opportunities against each niche's historical competition and set-aside patterns. The result is blunt: roughly 77% sit in prime-locked niches a newcomer won't crack — and only about 10% are in genuinely open ground. These are the most winnable niches with active work right now:
How to read the Target Score (0–100). It rewards two things and averages them: how open a niche is — 100 minus the share of dollars its top 3 contractors control (a low score here means a few giants own it) — and how small-business-friendly it is, i.e. how much of the work is set aside for small business. A niche is rarely strong on both at once, so scores run lower than a school grade — don't read 47 as a C. A rough guide to what's actually good:
- 35 and up — a genuinely open niche worth pursuing. Every niche in the table below clears this bar.
- 15–35 — moderate; winnable with the right certification, teaming, or past performance.
- under 10 — prime-locked. A handful of incumbents own it — don't waste a bid.
For context: among the niches with the most active work, scores top out near 48, while prime-locked dead zones sit near 0 — so a 47 here is a strong target.
| Niche (NAICS) | Active opps | Openness | Small-biz set-aside | Target score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other Computer Related Services (541519) | 234 | 87 | 9% | 48 |
| Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors (238220) | 402 | 59 | 34% | 47 |
| Lessors of Nonresidential Buildings (except Miniwarehouses) (531120) | 203 | 59 | 33% | 46 |
| Commercial and Institutional Building Construction (236220) | 1,476 | 84 | 4% | 44 |
| Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction (237990) | 524 | 84 | 1% | 43 |
| Computer Systems Design Services (541512) | 108 | 75 | 5% | 40 |
| Engineering Services (541330) | 612 | 75 | 2% | 39 |
| Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services (541611) | 110 | 73 | 4% | 38 |
| Janitorial Services (561720) | 255 | 69 | 6% | 38 |
| Facilities Support Services (561210) | 276 | 73 | 1% | 37 |
By contrast, the dead zones — where the top 3 contractors own nearly everything: Mechanical Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing (99%), Other Metal Container Manufacturing (100%), Instruments and Related Products Manufacturing for Measuring, Displaying, and Controlling Industrial Process Variables (98%), All Other Miscellaneous General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing (95%). Don't waste a bid there.
Methodology
Figures are computed from the 40,188 federal contract awards GovSentry analyzes (sourced from USAspending) and 30,600 active opportunities (SAM.gov), as of June 2026. This is a set weighted toward substantial, recompete-relevant contracts — not the entire federal universe — so dollar totals reflect the awards we track, not all federal spending. “Recompete window” means a contract's period of performance ends in the stated timeframe. The Target Score (0–100) is the average of a niche's openness (100 minus the dollar share held by its top 3 contractors) and its small-business set-aside rate; higher means more winnable. One corrupt record was excluded.
Cite this report
Free to cite with attribution to GovSentry. Suggested citation:
GovSentry. “The Federal Recompete Cliff: $732B Up for Recompete in 2026–2027.” June 2026. https://govsentry.ai/resources/federal-recompete-cliff-2026
See the recompetes and winnable opportunities in your niche
GovSentry tracks these contracts across SAM.gov and 100+ state & local portals, then scores every live opportunity against the patterns above — so you chase the winnable work, not the long shots.