GovSentry Research · June 2026
The Federal Recompete Cliff
We analyzed 40,188 federal contract awards to answer a question nobody else maps: what's coming up for recompete, and which of it can a normal business actually win? The short version — $732B across 8,603 contracts reach the end of their performance period in the next 12 months, and the wave is far from evenly spread.
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Prepared dossier preview
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Explore a prepared GovSentry report preview. Where we have a historical notice or award, it is labeled as closed; otherwise the example is explicitly illustrative. The award comparisons, fit estimates, and AI guidance show the workflow—not verified facts about the same contract. Run Search for your company to apply these tools to current matches.
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GovSentryOpportunity Overview
Design and Build Covered Parking Structure for Fighter Aircraft
An illustrative construction dossier showing how a completed report organizes notice details, profile fit, award comparisons, and next steps. These example figures are not a verified current opportunity.
Target & Match Score92%
Eligibility Assessment
Eligible with verification items
Profile data indicates a fit; confirm all official solicitation requirements before pursuing.
NAICS alignment
NAICS 236220 appears in the prepared construction-company profile.
Small-business competition
This sample illustrates how a set-aside would be checked against a company profile.
SAM.gov registration
Verify the company UEI and registration renewal date before bidding.
Market Context
89
Records analyzed
$1.85M
Average award
$764K
Median award
Strong
Illustrative fit signal — not a win probability
Competition signal
Recent Department of Defense construction awards under $10M show a broad small-project market with meaningful small-business participation.
| Comparable market | Winner signal | Award value |
|---|---|---|
| Same NAICS and agency family | Example comparable awardee | $2.03M illustrative award |
| Historical award set | Multiple public winners | $764K median |
Related Award Context
Example comparable awardee
$2.03M illustrative award
A related awardee is market context, not proof that it held the exact requirement. A live dossier should link the award record and distinguish a confirmed prior contractor from a broader comparable.
Pricing Intelligence
$21.7K–$9.77M
Comparable range
$1.85M
Average
$764K
Median
The awarded value was $2.03M. Use that amount and the comparable-award distribution as context, then price the active solicitation from its actual drawings, labor, material, bonding, and schedule requirements.
Related Opportunities
Executive Summary
Recommendation: Pursue when scope and bonding fit. The prepared profile has strong NAICS, small-business, and geographic alignment. A contract near $2M is substantial but within reach for many established specialty and general contractors.
Market Context
⚠️ NAICS-Based Data Limitation: Market data includes all contracts under this NAICS code, which can range from $10K local projects to $1B+ specialized systems. Past award sizes and winners may not reflect this specific opportunity's scope. Always review the solicitation details to assess fit.
89 comparable awards were analyzed. The average award was $1.85M and the median was $764K. Recent Department of Defense construction awards under $10M show a broad small-project market with meaningful small-business participation..
Similar Contract Winners
These are comparable awards selected by available NAICS, agency, or location fields. The search can broaden to NAICS-only results, and cached awards can be older than two years. They are not confirmed predecessors for this solicitation.
⚠️ Note: Awards shown may be for vastly different scopes/sizes under the same NAICS category. A $500M system and a $50K service contract can share the same NAICS code.
Related award context: Example comparable awardee — $2.03M illustrative award. A related awardee is market context, not proof that it held the exact requirement. A live dossier should link the award record and distinguish a confirmed prior contractor from a broader comparable.
Positioning Strategy
Lead with comparable design-build work, airfield or secured-facility experience, local subcontractor coverage, safety performance, and a schedule that minimizes disruption to flight operations.
Pricing Guidance
Comparable range: $21.7K–$9.77M. The awarded value was $2.03M. Use that amount and the comparable-award distribution as context, then price the active solicitation from its actual drawings, labor, material, bonding, and schedule requirements. Firm-fixed-price design-build construction; validate scope before using historical awards as a bid target.
Recommended Next Steps
Verify SAM.gov registration and the prepared profile
Review drawings, bonding, and site-access requirements
Research the awardee and comparable winners
Build a labor, material, and contingency model
Track related recompetes and new construction notices
📋 Important Disclaimers
- • Market data is indicative, not definitive
- • Always review the actual solicitation documents for requirements and scope
- • GovSentry scores and AI judgments are screening aids, not calibrated win probabilities
- • Follow linked source records for factual claims; some estimates have no direct source link
- • Past performance data may include contracts of different sizes under the same NAICS code
- • GovSentry provides intelligence to inform your decision—final pursuit decisions require your expertise
Prepared by GovSentry AI; review the underlying notice before acting.
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Prepared for federal recompete cliff 2026 using an illustrative example.
Open the full dossier at normal size$732B
up for recompete in 12 months
$314B
expiring in Q3 2026 alone
3,894
winnable (<$10M) recompetes
1. The recompete wave peaks at fiscal year-end
Federal contracts cluster their end dates on the September 30 fiscal year-end — so recompetes don't trickle out evenly, they arrive in waves. The biggest in the next two years lands in Q3 2026: $314B across 3,846 contracts hitting their performance deadline at once. Position before the solicitations drop, not after.
2. There are two federal contracting markets
The headline dollars hide the real story. 85% of contract value sits in mega-contracts ($100M+) — a world where the top 10 contractors hold 38% and almost nothing is set aside for small business. But there's a second market: 17,506 contracts under $10M where the top 10 hold just 4.6% — wide open, and where a small business actually competes.
| Tier | Awards | Value | Top-10 grip | Small-biz set-aside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega ($100M+) | 6,708 | $4.49T | 38% | 1.3% |
| Large ($10–100M) | 15,974 | $731B | 17% | 3.5% |
| Winnable (<$10M) | 17,506 | $45B | 4.6% | 1.9% |
Of the $732B up for recompete, $17.4B across 3,894 contracts falls in the winnable (<$10M) tier — the recompetes a small business can realistically chase.
3. Most active opportunities are long shots — here are the winnable niches
We scored 30,600 active federal opportunities against each niche's historical competition and set-aside patterns. The result is blunt: roughly 77% sit in prime-locked niches a newcomer won't crack — and only about 10% are in genuinely open ground. These are the most winnable niches with active work right now:
How to read the Target Score (0–100). It rewards two things and averages them: how open a niche is — 100 minus the share of dollars its top 3 contractors control (a low score here means a few giants own it) — and how small-business-friendly it is, i.e. how much of the work is set aside for small business. A niche is rarely strong on both at once, so scores run lower than a school grade — don't read 47 as a C. A rough guide to what's actually good:
- 35 and up — a genuinely open niche worth pursuing. Every niche in the table below clears this bar.
- 15–35 — moderate; winnable with the right certification, teaming, or past performance.
- under 10 — prime-locked. A handful of incumbents own it — don't waste a bid.
For context: among the niches with the most active work, scores top out near 48, while prime-locked dead zones sit near 0 — so a 47 here is a strong target.
| Niche (NAICS) | Active opps | Openness | Small-biz set-aside | Target score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other Computer Related Services (541519) | 234 | 87 | 9% | 48 |
| Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors (238220) | 402 | 59 | 34% | 47 |
| Lessors of Nonresidential Buildings (except Miniwarehouses) (531120) | 203 | 59 | 33% | 46 |
| Commercial and Institutional Building Construction (236220) | 1,476 | 84 | 4% | 44 |
| Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction (237990) | 524 | 84 | 1% | 43 |
| Computer Systems Design Services (541512) | 108 | 75 | 5% | 40 |
| Engineering Services (541330) | 612 | 75 | 2% | 39 |
| Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services (541611) | 110 | 73 | 4% | 38 |
| Janitorial Services (561720) | 255 | 69 | 6% | 38 |
| Facilities Support Services (561210) | 276 | 73 | 1% | 37 |
By contrast, the dead zones — where the top 3 contractors own nearly everything: Mechanical Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing (99%), Other Metal Container Manufacturing (100%), Instruments and Related Products Manufacturing for Measuring, Displaying, and Controlling Industrial Process Variables (98%), All Other Miscellaneous General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing (95%). Don't waste a bid there.
Methodology
Figures are computed from the 40,188 federal contract awards GovSentry analyzes (sourced from USAspending) and 30,600 active opportunities (SAM.gov), as of June 2026. This is a set weighted toward substantial, recompete-relevant contracts — not the entire federal universe — so dollar totals reflect the awards we track, not all federal spending. “Recompete window” means a contract's period of performance ends in the stated timeframe. The Target Score (0–100) is the average of a niche's openness (100 minus the dollar share held by its top 3 contractors) and its small-business set-aside rate; higher means more winnable. One corrupt record was excluded.
Cite this report
Free to cite with attribution to GovSentry. Suggested citation:
GovSentry. “The Federal Recompete Cliff: $732B Up for Recompete in 2026–2027.” June 2026. https://govsentry.ai/resources/federal-recompete-cliff-2026
See the recompetes and winnable opportunities in your niche
GovSentry tracks these contracts across SAM.gov and 100+ state & local portals, then scores every live opportunity against the patterns above — so you chase the winnable work, not the long shots.